22 April 2007

French Exit Polls

At this time predicted 87% of all French voters, well, voted, in the first round. That's apparently the highest level since 84% voted in the mid-1960s in an election won by De Gaulle.

Edit: Some exit poll numbers:

Sarkozy - 29.4%

Royal - 26.2%

Bayrou - 18.6%

Le Pen - 10.8%

If this holds then my predictions were, well, way off. Indeed, both top two candidates did exceedingly well if these numbers hold up. This probably means a victory for Sarkozy in the second round.

Edit II:

BBC 24 live coverage.

Edit III: Another exit poll has Sarkozy at 30%.

Edit IV: Oh, and this I think the first presidential election since I 1981 when Chirac was not running for president.

Edit V: Yet another exit poll. Royal's camp has got to be worried about Sarkozy's performance as the exit polls show that the majority of Bayrou's supporters perfer Sarkozy over her.

Edit VI: Apparently I may be wrong about my assertion in Edit V.


highnumber said...

Be with us next time for
Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal [...] presenting France with a fundamental left-right choice between a conservative who could push his anxious nation toward painful change and a socialist who would be the country's first female leader.

or "DarkAndInevitable vs. ButIsn'tThisGreat?"

Grotius said...


I think Sarkozy will beat her (though I think a Sarkozy v. Bayrou contest would have ended up with Bayrou on the top), though it won't be a landslide.

Whether either is able to go forward with their particular agendas will in part depend on the legislative elections in June.